Os efeitos das regras e padrões fiscais sobre a relação dívida/pib de 2000 a 2021

Abstract

The objective of this paper is to analyze the effects of fiscal rules and standards on the sustainability of public debt. To achieve this goal, an empirical study was conducted using panel data from 94 countries for the period 2000 to 2021, using the fixed effects and diferences in differences methodologies in order to control for cross-country heterogeneity. The main data sources are Davoodi et al. (2022a) and the World Bank Open Data. The results showed that fiscal rules have a negative effect on the Debt/GDP ratio; however, fiscal standards tend to mitigate the effects of the rules on debt. Thus, the implementation of fiscal rules contributes to a reduction in the debt-to-GDP ratio, while fiscal standards mitigate the trade-off between debt sustainability and the level of economic activity. Moreover, this smoothing effect is stronger in developed countries compared to developing economies.