Determinantes do desempenho esportivo dos clubes brasileiros de futebol entre 2012- 2023: uma análise em painel, com termos interativos e regressões quantílicas

Abstract

This research aimed to evaluate the sporting-performance determinants in the 1st and 2nd divisions of Brazilian football, between 2012 and 2023. To this end, panel-data was used, with interactive terms and quantile regressions, using the CBF Ranking and the Brazilian Championship Score as performance proxies. The results indicate that clubs with their own stadiums, more rivals in the State, and international tournament titles (especially the last one) would have advantages in the Brazilian Championship. This also proved valid for clubs in the 1st division, which participate in international tournaments and keep their stadiums full. As for those vying for the title of the aforementioned competition, it is suggested that they invest in their squads, but avoid indebtedness (for these, the acquisition of the latest "best-player" and/or "most-assists-player" would be promising). Regarding the CBF Ranking, it was found that the state-champion teams, which keep their stadiums full, belong to wealthier cities, and avoid having their squads reach an advanced average age, would tend to score more points. For teams competing in 1st division, participating in the Libertadores Cup and having high gross revenue would be a differentiating factor. However, reaching the top of this ranking would also require investments in the squad (despite the debt). Furthermore, a powerful-attack has proven superior to a powerful-defense, regardless of the performance criterion.