Modelo de previsão do IPCA para o ano de 2026 no Brasil: uma análise via método de regressão dinâmica

Abstract

This study focuses on analyzing Brazilian inflation, aiming to understand the key factors that influence its behavior and impact on the national economy. The primary objective is to forecast the evolution of Brazil’s inflation index (IPCA) through 2026. To achieve this, historical data on the IPCA was compiled alongside relevant macroeconomic variables such as the exchange rate, Selic interest rate, and international commodity prices—particularly oil. The Dynamic Regression Method (DRM) was applied to generate predictive equations and simulate future scenarios. The results are intended to support strategic decision-making across public and private sectors and to encourage further research into the mechanisms driving inflation in Brazil.