Modelo de previsão do consumo de água em m3 no Setor Urbano de Juiz de Fora e distritos

Abstract

This monographic study aims to develop and analyze a forecasting model for the monthly total water consumption (in m3

) in the Urban Sector of Juiz de Fora and its districts, covering the period from May 2025 to December 2026. To achieve this, two projection models were developed: one using the Exponential Smoothing method and the other employing the Box & Jenkins methodology. In order to determine which model would be most appropriate for forecasting water consumption, a competition between them was conducted through out-of-sample rolling evaluation analysis. As a result, the Box & Jenkins model was identified as the most suitable, projecting a consecutive increase in water consumption for the years 2025 and 2026, though with a more modest growth in the second year. Additionally, research was carried out regarding the country’s water capacity and its economic significance.