Dívida pública e sustentabilidade fiscal no Brasil: uma análise econômica (2007–2025)

Abstract

This monograph addresses the topic of Brazilian public debt. The work first includes a literature review. It covers the entire theoretical and conceptual framework on debt and sustainability, which will be used to inform the discussions that follow. It also provides a summary of the main findings obtained by various authors regarding the sustainability of Brazilian public debt. This led to a discussion of the evolution of Brazilian public debt between 2007 and 2025, from the perspective of gross debt. An analysis of Budget Laws and Guidelines (LDO) over the aforementioned period was conducted to conduct a more detailed assessment of Brazil's budgetary health management. Based on this, a discussion was held on the evolution of Brazilian public debt between 2007 and 2025, from the perspective of Gross Debt. An analysis of Budget Laws and Guidelines (LDO) over the aforementioned period was conducted to conduct a more detailed assessment of Brazil's budgetary health management. This analysis revealed that these laws were frequently modified during the fiscal year, which contributed to increased government spending and, consequently, to the rise in public debt. Finally, public debt simulation exercises were conducted, based on the contributions of Bohn (1991), comparing the results obtained using ex-post data for relevant macroeconomic indicators with those obtained using market expectations, extracted from the Focus Bulletin.