Impactos econômicos e efeitos de descarbonização da política blend de SAF no setor aéreo brasileiro

Abstract

The air transport industry is strategic for the economy and facilitates the integration of production chains. However, its economic activity also generates adverse effects in the form of carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions derived from the use of fossil fuels. Although responsible for only 2.5% of global CO2 emissions in 2024, emissions from air transport were the fastest growing among transport modes between 2000 and 2019. In this context, to align with the global decarbonization movement, Brazil established the Future Fuel Law (LCF), which sets progressive targets for reducing emissions from domestic flights, and joined the Carbon Offsetting and Reduction Scheme for International Aviation (CORSIA), which regulates emissions from international flights. The replacement of jet fuel (JF) with sustainable aviation fuel (SAF) emerges as the most viable technical alternative to meet these regulations, although it is not yet produced on a commercial scale. Despite the relevance of the topic, there are no studies that assess in an integrated manner the economic and environmental effects of implementing these policies in Brazil. Thus, this thesis aims to measure the economic and environmental impacts of replacing JF with SAF in the Brazilian air transport industry between 2027 and 2037, considering the CO2 reduction targets set by the LCF and CORSIA. To achieve this objective, five dynamic Computable General Equilibrium (CGE) models, generically named Brazilian Sustainable Aviation Fuel (SAFBR), were developed. They were calibrated using the Brazilian Social Accounting Matrix (SAM), CO2 emissions data, and the incorporation of a new industry exclusively dedicated to SAF production. Five pathways for SAF production were analyzed – two based on first-generation biomass (CAN/ATJ and OS/HEFA) and three derived from second-generation feedstocks (RCAN/ATJ, SB/HEFA, and RF/FT) – simulated under two decarbonization scenarios aligned with the LCF and CORSIA targets, resulting in ten simulations. In both scenarios, although the air transport industry achieves its emission reduction targets, its output would decline, especially in the pathways with higher SAF abatement costs. The results for other industries indicate gains for those linked to the SAF production chain and losses for those connected to the air transport production chain. For the economy, the results indicate that there would be negative economic effects, higher CO2 emissions, and adverse impacts on household welfare, particularly among low-income households. Therefore, despite the environmental benefits for the air transport industry, LCF and CORSIA would result in negative economic and environmental impacts for the economy.