Ensaios sobre capacidade produtiva, tecnológica e políticas de financiamento da indústria eólica

Abstract

Energy systems, heavily dependent on carbon, are deeply embedded in social, economic, and political life. With the challenges of anthropogenic climate change and energy security, wind energy has been identified as a key technology to promote climate, social, and economic benefits. In recent years, technological advances have increased the maturity and competitiveness of this technology. Considered a dynamic, technological, and exponentially growing industry, global wind power generation capacity increased by 14% in 2022, making it the second highest among all available renewable technologies. However, with the ongoing transformation of the energy system, meeting the growing demand for wind energy and achieving technological leaps requires the development of an efficient, high-value-added domestic production chain. Built on these foundations, this thesis aims to discuss the productive and technological capacity in the development of the wind energy industry, as well as the essential role of financing policies aimed at this technology, through three essays. Based on a systematic literature review, the first essay highlights the mechanisms associated with the creation and development of the wind energy industry in scenarios with and without immediate precedents. The main results point to pre-existing, multisectoral evidence anchored in the capabilities for wind energy development of different countries that are players in the market, such as activities in oil and gas, shipbuilding, aviation, and metal-mechanical sectors, among others, as well as the interaction between public, private, and civic agents. The article concludes that, for the development of “a new path” and the spillover of capabilities, access to enabling structures (research institutions, government institutions, and universities), collaboration in the provision of new technologies (within and between sectors), and local absorption capacity are essential. The second essay identifies the associated factors and conditioning pathways for specialization in the wind energy sector, from a comparative perspective between South American countries and leading onshore market players. This is based on the construction of a specialization indicator, combined with multivariate analysis techniques, for the periods of 2010, 2015, and 2020. In addition to the main players (Germany, China, the United States, and India), the results indicate specialization and signs of specialization in Uruguay, Brazil, and Chile. With economic, political, and natural stimuli, different conditioning pathways for specialization in the wind energy sector were identified, highlighting the components of “carbon lock-in” and “energy dependence”. The article concludes that there is an effort to transition the current energy system and that economies characterized by carbon-intensive activities and high energy dependence can promote the transformation of their systems through policies and instruments aimed at this new activity. Focusing on Brazil, the third essay estimates the local effect of financing on wind energy activities in the industrial sector, using the Difference-in-Differences (DiD) econometric method, for the period between 2002 and 2021. The results indicate a positive and statistically significant effect of financing on industrial and total Added Value (VA), as well as on total municipal employment, particularly in the period following the receipt of funds. The article concludes that there was a positive local effect in the municipalities that received the resources, attributed in part to local physical and productive capacities, which enabled the absorption of demand generated by activities supported by sectoral instruments and policies. This, therefore, suggests the importance of policies and instruments emphasizing the local development of generation and production activities.