Impactos dos gastos sociais no combate à pobreza e extrema pobreza: uma análise regional para o período de 2013 a 2021

Abstract

This monograph aims to investigate the factors influencing poverty and extreme poverty rates in Brazil from 2013 to 2021, considering the North, South, Southeast, Center-West, and Northeast regions. To this end, variables related to social spending (health and sanitation, education and culture, security), income transfers (Bolsa Família Program), economic growth (Gross Domestic Product), and social inequality (Gini index) were analyzed, obtained from the Atlas of Human Development in Brazil and Ipeadata. The data were organized in a panel structure, and the pooled, fixed effects, and random effects models were applied. Based on this, it was found that the fixed effects model was the most suitable for analyzing poverty, according to the F, Breusch-Pagan, and Hausman tests. The main results indicate that income inequality, measured by the Gini index, has a positive and significant impact on poverty and extreme poverty: a 1% increase in inequality is associated with a 6.489% increase in extreme poverty and a 5.017% increase in poverty, highlighting the relationship between income concentration and economic vulnerability. Other relevant findings indicate that economic growth and security spending were not statistically significant. Additionally, some non-intuitive results were observed, such as the positive association between health and sanitation spending and poverty and extreme poverty rates, suggesting that a 1% increase in these expenditures is related to an increase of 0.581% and 0.440% in extreme poverty and poverty rates, respectively. Bolsa Família transfers had negative and significant impacts on poverty and extreme poverty rates, with a 1% increase in transfers associated with a reduction of 1.319% and 0.854% in these rates. On the other hand, education and culture spending was significant in the estimation of extreme poverty, where a 1% increase in expenditures was associated with a 0.789% reduction. Finally, the regional fixed effects highlight persistent inequalities, with the Northeast and North regions recording the highest levels of poverty, while the Southeast and Center-West regions had the lowest, reinforcing the importance of regional strategies to address poverty.