Crises e comportamento: análise da resposta do mercado financeiro brasileiro à pandemia de COVID-19

Abstract

The theme of this work was the analysis of cyclical crises in the financial market from the perspective of behavioral economics. The research was carried out by collecting data on monthly returns of the main assets available to Brazilian investors, for analysis, comparison and interpretation. The investments chosen for analysis in this research were Ibovespa, the Dollar, Bitcoin, BDRX, IFIX and CDI, in the period of January 2019, even before the pandemic; to December 2021, when the effects of the crisis were already declining. The survey results showed that the COVID-19 pandemic had a significant impact on the Brazilian financial market, both in the short and long term. The pandemic led to a sharp drop in asset prices such as stocks, bonds and currencies. This drop was caused by economic uncertainty and falling demand for goods and services. The pandemic led to a change in investors' risk profile, with greater risk aversion and a greater search for safe assets. This change was influenced by a number of factors, including economic uncertainty, falling interest rates and increased market volatility. It was highlighted that cognitive biases also played an important role in investor behavior during the pandemic. Exposure to negative news, overconfidence and risk aversion were some of the biases that most influenced investors' decisions.