Efeitos econômicos e regionais da renovação dos contratos de concessão das empresas ferroviárias no Brasil

Abstract

With the globalization of trade, only markets equipped with effective transportation systems can compete on a global scale, with railways playing a leading role in this chain. In Brazil, the freight railway sector experienced successive productivity gains after its restructuring in the second half of the 1990s, resulting in direct benefits for the country's export base. These productivity advances in the post-concession period mirrored the global trend of sector restructuring, especially in the context of increasing globalization. The global landscape has made exporting companies more reliant on freight rail transport to enhance their competitiveness in the face of the internationalization of consumption and production. In the country, the freight railway transport sector is organized into defined logistical corridors to facilitate the flow of domestic production to maritime ports. The renewal of concession contracts for railway companies in Brazil impacts the economy at the national level and in various regions. In this context, the dissertation aimsto project the economic and regional effects of thenew phase of railway concessions in Brazil, started in mid 2015. For the simulations, two sets of shocks were constructed, 2017-42 and 2043-60, resultins from variations in productivity and planned investments in the freight rail sector, associated with concession renewals in the Brazilian economy. To achieve this purpose, a dynamic computable general equilibrium model is used, The Enormous Regional Model (TERM-BR), calibrated for the year 2015 and specially developed to deal with highly disaggregated regional data. The model's data structureadequately considers freight rail activity.