Fundos setoriais e os efeitos do financiamento à CT&I no Brasil

Abstract

Support mechanisms for ST&I in Brazil have gained importance in the last three decades due to their expansion and improvement of the regulatory framework in accordance with the best international practices of public investment in the area of science, technology and innovation. An innovation in ST&I support mechanisms was based on the creation, from the second half of the 1990s, of so-called sectoral funds for science and innovation. Starting from the first fund, related to the oil and gas sector (CT-Petro), created in 1997, fifteen more funds were created, of which fifteen were active in 2017. Based on the increasingly evident relevance of the agenda on financing and investment in ST&I in Brazil and around the world, this research has as main objective to carry out a sensitive analysis to investigate and analyze the macroeconomic, sectoral and social accounting effects of sectoral funds in the Brazilian economy in the long term based on a computable general equilibrium model with comparative statics. For this, the BRAGEMSF - Brazilian General Equilibrium Model with Sectoral Funds model was developed, calibrated with data from the input-output matrix and the social accounting matrix for the Brazilian economy for the year 2017. This model specifically has, in addition to the opening for the Brazilian social accounting matrix, the stock of knowledge capital, represented by the remuneration of the financial resources of sectoral funds, as a component of the added value. Thus, investment in ST&I financed by sectoral funds was evidenced as an additional element in the formation of primary factors. Thus, from modeling, knowledge capital plays an active role in production. For the simulations, carried out based on a nominal exogenous shock in the stock of capital knowledge in the long run, two scenarios were constructed: scenario 1 or optimistic, in which there is an increase in the stock of knowledge capital; and scenario 2, or pessimistic, with the reduction in the stock of said capital. The results achieved show that, in the optimistic scenario, the increase in knowledge capital in the Brazilian economy provides a situation of improvement in economic indicators, with the sectoral increase in production, investment, exports and an ambiguous effect on employment, with increments and reductions in the number of workers, depending on the sector. While production and investment grew more frequently in more technology-intensive sectors, exports grew more in low-technology sectors. With regard to transfers from the social accounting matrix, companies receive more resources to invest in ST&I than they make available for the formation of fund capital. The pessimistic scenario presented a situation of GDP reduction, with an increase in the costs of production factors and a fall in production, investment and exports. In this scenario, the percentage variation averages for production, investment and exports were negative and comparatively higher, in module, than the averages of the optimistic scenario. The transfers for the formation of financial capital from sectoral funds and for the financing of innovation in Brazil through them fall in this cenario, with the drop in funding being greater than that referring to capital formation. This allows concluding that the reduction in the stock of knowledge capital generates a pernicious situation in the Brazilian economy, whose negative effects are more intense than those obtained in the optimistic scenario.