O clima urbano como risco climático: os impactos das chuvas em Juiz de Fora- no período de 1980-2018

Abstract

Discussions about the urban climate in Brazil have advanced since the 1970s, when the country registered an intense process of urbanization, leading to inquiries among scholars about this new environmental picture that was observed in cities. Within the investigations of the urban climate, Carlos Augusto de Figueiredo Monteiro's approach with the Urban Climate SystemSCU (1976) has consolidated itself as a theoretical-methodological reference of the studies, however, currently other approaches are possible and complementary to this, among them the discussion of urban climate based on the proposal of Geography of Climate proposed by Sant'Anna Neto (2001, 2007), in which urban climate starts to be analyzed based on Climate Risk, according to Nascimento Júnior (2018) and Goudard (2019). Thus, to apprehend the urban climate from the risk is to understand the impact of the rains from a view that takes into account precipitation as a fundamental element, but also the way in which the urban space is occupied and produced, in relation to its environmental susceptibilities , to social vulnerability with a view to perceiving impacts, from a social perspective as well. From a methodological point of view, this work will rely on the survey and application of statistical techniques in the daily precipitation data; gathering information about environmental susceptibility to the occurrence of mass movements and floods; application of a social vulnerability index and a documentary survey about the impacts of rainfall in the city, using information obtained from the city's printed media newspapers, finally an integration was used in the data, using the AHP technique ( Analytic Hierarchy Process), the mapping of climatic risk based on information on vulnerability, susceptibility and history of occurrences associated with precipitation (hazards). The results showed a significant trend of increasing rainfall in November in events above the 90th percentile. In other months, the trends were not significant. The mapping of the impacts revealed that the Planning Regions most impacted are the Central and Eastern RP, with the hydrological impacts predominating in the Center (floods,). Using the AHP technique, the climatic risk was mapped to geomorphological impacts (landslides and landslides), and the regions with the highest percentage of areas with the very high and high risk classes were in the East and Southeast, in addition, the areas of high and extremely high risk were the most impacted by the occurrence of landslides and landslides in the city. Based on the discussion of climate risk, it was concluded that the occurrence of impacts, whether hydrological (floods) or geomorphological (landslides), occurs unevenly in the city, as they relate to the elements of vulnerability and susceptibility, with the extreme episodes of precipitation having a different impact on neighborhoods in the city.