Efeitos do uso do Forward Guidance na economia brasileira

Abstract

The main objective of this dissertation is to evaluate the importance of credible signaling of the future intentions of those responsible for formulating Brazil’s economic policies. The purpose is to check the effectiveness of forward guidance practice in the Brazilian economy. From a Stochastic Dynamic General Equilibrium (DSGE) approach, an open economy is modeled, with aspects that simulate Brazilian’s economy in addition to interactions between monetary and fiscal policies. Moreover, the model is displayed in a linear state-space representation, so that it is possible to compare two distinct cases, one with perfect anticipation of agents about the direction of monetary policy, and another one in which agents are surprised by policy makers. The results show that a monetary policy shock can be amplified if agents are able to anticipate its occurrence. The effects of an anticipated shock compared to a situation where agents were surprised by the Central Bank are 60% higher for inflation and 50% higher for output. Furthermore, a raise on public debt can be observed. In conclusion, forward guidance improves the effect of interest rate changes, which makes it an important tool to be explored on Brazil’s monetary policy conduction.