Geração distribuída fotovoltaica no brasil: dinâmica de adoção, impactos tarifários e efeitos nas receitas das distribuidoras

Abstract

This thesis investigates the expansion of distributed photovoltaic generation in Brazil and its economic implications within the electricity sector. The study begins with the consolidation of the regulatory framework for micro and mini-distributed generation and the growth of photovoltaic system connections to the distribution network over the last decade. The analysis is structured in three complementary empirical exercises. The first estimates the adoption trajectory of distributed generation in the five major Brazilian regions using Bass's diffusion model, identifying parameters associated with innovation and imitation and projecting the regional dynamics of expansion. The second examines the relationship between the penetration of distributed generation and average electricity tariffs using autoregressive models with distributed lags (ARDL), allowing for the joint analysis of short- and long-term effects and the verification of cointegration between variables. The third evaluates the impact of distributed generation on the revenue of distributors using econometric models with dynamic panel data, estimated by the Generalized Method of Moments (GMM), controlling for the number of captive consumers and the real average tariff. The results indicate regional heterogeneity in the diffusion of technology and point to a negative association between the expansion of distributed generation, tariff evolution, and the revenue dynamics of utilities, with this effect being more evident in dynamic specifications that incorporate time lags and regional differences. These findings contribute to the understanding of the economic effects of generation decentralization in the institutional context of the Brazilian electricity sector.