Efeitos econômicos dos investimentos do setor de tecnologias da informação e comunicação no Brasil

Abstract

This study analyzes the economic impacts of investments in Information and Communication Technologies (ICT) on the Brazilian economy, considering their effects on economic growth, sectoral production, employment, and labor remuneration. Methodologically, a simulation model based on the national Input–Output Matrix for the year 2021 is employed, which allows capturing intersectoral linkages and measuring the direct and indirect impacts arising from demand shocks associated with ICT investments. The main results indicate that a 1% increase in ICT investments raises GDP by 0.0026% when originating from the services sector and by 0.0009% when originating from industries, generating approximately 3,206 and 781 jobs, respectively. Under a scenario of average annual growth in investments, the effects become more pronounced, with GDP impacts of 0.0068% for services and 0.0017% for industries. In the long run, considering the cumulative growth of ICT investments between 2010 and 2021, shocks of 33.43% in services and 23.6% in industries result in GDP increases of 0.085% and 0.021%, as well as the creation of 107,172 and 18,432 jobs, respectively. By differentiating the allocation dynamics of ICT investments, this methodological approach enables a more accurate assessment of the economic impacts of the projected investments on the Brazilian economy. Thus, this monograph seeks to contribute to the current debate on expanding ICT investments by highlighting the magnitude and direction of the effects propagated throughout the national productive system, whose projections may support both public policy formulation and the strategic decision-making of firms linked to these activities.