Distribuição espacial, tendências temporais, efeito de local de jogo e métricas de desempenho ofensivo dos chutes a gol no futebol masculino profissional (2014/2015-2024/2025)

Abstract

The present study set out to investigate the spatial distribution, temporal trends, the effect of the playing location, and the offensive performance metrics of shots on goal in elite professional men's soccer. To this end, data from matches in the five major European first division leagues (Premier League, La Liga, Serie A, Bundesliga, and Ligue 1) were analysed, covering twelve consecutive seasons (2014/2015 to 2025/2026). The information was obtained through the utilisation of specialised public platforms (FBref and Understat), employing web scraping procedures and computational analysis in R language. Shots on goal were categorised according to several factors, including distance, angle, zone and corridor of the field, body segment used, situation of the play, preceding action, position of the player, and game condition (home or away), in addition to the expected goal (xG) metric. The total number of games analysed was 20,002, with a total of 502,406 shots on goal, and an average of 25.1 ± 5.9 attempts per game. It was found that approximately 34% of the shots were directed at the goal, resulting in 53,720 goals (2.7 ± 1.7 goals per game). Home teams exhibited a higher volume of goal attempts (~21.9%) in comparison to away teams, in addition to a higher total xG per match. However, the effectiveness and accuracy rates were found to be analogous between these two match location conditions. Most shots (~ 73%) were initiated from open play, with a significant proportion (~ 51%) being executed with the right foot. These events predominantly transpired within the penalty area and along the central axis of the field. From a spatial perspective, there was a higher frequency of shots from intermediate distances, between 10 and 25 metres (18.2 ± 8.1 m), and from tight to medium angles (median of 20°), contexts associated with lower probabilities of goal conversion. Almost half of the attempts were classified as having a very low probability of scoring (xG < 0.05); however, the home teams generated a higher volume of shots classified as "great chance" (xG ≥ 0.60). Temporal analyses indicated an increase in the frequency of shots in the final minutes of matches, especially in the last 15 minutes, with a slight predominance of away teams. Over the course of the seasons, a trend of increasing blocked shots and decreasing shots off target was identified, concomitant with a decrease in the average distance of attempts. This suggests an evolution in collective defensive behaviours and greater spatial compactness. The spatial, technical and temporal patterns of shots on goal demonstrated a high degree of stability between home and away teams, as well as over time. The findings of this study provide insights that are pertinent to the analysis of performance, the planning of tactics, and the structuring of training in high-performance soccer that is based on evidence.