Áreas de adequabilidade de Macrobrachium amazonicum (Heller, 1861) e Macrobrachium jeslkii (Miers, 1877) para o território brasileiro

Abstract

Studies on exotic species ecological niche modeling have grown up in recent years due to the emergence of new predictions tools and technologies. Predictive models are essential for obtaining ecological data aimed at understanding the establishment of new potentially invasive species in Brazilian territory. Among the environments threatened by biological invasion events, freshwater ecosystems are the ones that lack more knowledge and are under increasing threats as increasing urbanization and agriculture. The aim of this study was to perform niche modeling for the species Macrobrachium amazonicum and Macrobrachium jelskii in Brazil and predict the invasive potential de M. amazonicum and M. jelskii in the Brazilian territory. These species were chosen because they are widely cultivated and sold in the country and, despite being native to the Amazon, M. jelskii is already considered an invasive species by some authors and M. amazonicum considered exotic, both with negative effects on other ecosystems. Through niche modeling, it was possible to observe the most vulnerable zones for the occurrence of these potentially invasive species. Species presence data were obtained through a systematic review of the literature, carried out in the databases of scientific articles Web of Science, Scopus and ASFA, and from data available on the Global Biodiversity Information Facitily (GBIF) platform by the year 2021. Species occurrence data were associated with local climate predictor variables for the present. Climatic variables were obtained from the Worldclim database. All analyzes were carried out using QGIS software and the R program. To model the distribution of species and demarcate potential areas of occurrence, the MaxEnt algorithm of the SDM package was used. Our results indicated a large suitability area for M. amazonicum and M. jelskii, with TSS and AUC values greater than 0.6 and 0.8, respectively. The suitability areas for these species correspond to approximately 6% of the national territory and cover several hydrographic basins and biological reserves of Brazilian environmental protection. The information generated by our study was an important tool for identifying areas susceptible to biological invasion and conservation and management actions in the Brazilian territory.